investments, thieves (aka Mwizi Pekee), Maombi

It has long been the prevalent view that the art of successful
investment lies first in the choice of those industries that
are most likely to grow in the future and then in identifying the
most promising companies in these industries. - Benjamin Franklin

In Kenya, I think telecommunications and the industrial and allied sectors as well as commercial/financial services are growing.

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Now what do these thieves want... yaani why does an MP in Nairobi need all that fuel allowance for... And as usual, there are no opposing voices... MP= Mwizi Pekee...

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Our leaders need prayers.. At least as a Christian I should pray for them as I am commanded to. While praying, I should also hold them accountable, and if they don't change their ways. I WILL not vote for them..

And the cycle hopefully will not repeat itself .... or will it? :(

Investment reading

Came across Benjamin Graham's book - the Intelligent Investor (4th edition)... Very informative book: Warren Buffet was an understudy of his.
Now that most of the guys in the NSE speculate.... should be a enlightening read..

vote vote! Arsenal vs Barcelona

Arsenal vs Barcelona:

Dream final:

Two of the best attacking teams in the world going at each other... ideal soccer game to watch

fun!

I plan to enjoy this fully...

More analysis as May 17 approaches...

Music and Open Source Software/Free Software

Just spent a few hours at my 'kienyeji' studios (aka computer + guitar) with Audacity and KRecord on SuSE linux 10.0

Sound quality is excellent.. i'm still to try out the more professional and feature filled Ardour.. (for me feature filled most of the time means steep learning curve)

Recording guitar to comp results in a surprisingly low amount of white noise in Linux - Windows funny enough has much more white noise..

I tell u live recording artists are simply harsh...really good at what they do.. I'm very far from what i think is perfection...

But I'm having total fun doing this..

Relativity

I loved this quote:

When you are courting a nice girl an hour seems like a second. When you sit on a red-hot cinder a second seems like an hour. That's relativity.
Albert Einstein

L' Arsenal, Kaka and Barca

Ok... worst performance I've ever seen from Arsenal this season .. in the champions league.. Lehmann has just solidified his position as Germany No 1 Keeper.
Gilberto may have also guaranteed a Brazil Start..
But history never records such things.. they are in the Paris Final. Can't say they don't deserve to be there though. Nerves + Fatigue from playing way too many games of late:

Juve... manu, portsmouth, west brom, villareal, tottenham, villareal.. with 2-3 days in between for rest... and a very small squad. Now Senderos and Flamini injured.

Barca vs AC Milan: I don't think Barcelona's Defence is as astute as Villareal's. AC Milan will certainly go all out to get that away goal to even things out. And Pipo Inzaghi is back.. he has this knack of scoring important goals..from impossible situations.. Kaka is on form.. I think he's seriously underestimated...he'll definately have to play a great role if AC Milan are to be in Paris on May 17. He was their best player last week. Schevchenko will need to get back to his immaculate self.. and Gilardino shouldn't even appear on the bench.

AC Milan are more than capable of winning at the Nou Camp.. question is whether they can stop Barca Scoring...

Arsenal vs Barcelona final i think though. Better from an entertainment point of view anyway.

investment clubs

10 or so guys with KES 100000 or so each can really dictate Buy/Sell price..

Let alone the likes of akina the now well known Transcentury Group who have caused a sharp rise in Housing Finance shares with their intended acquisition of 24.9%..

I for one am for small investors to pool up their resources and buy buy buy.. getting portfolio management services wouldn't be hard i think, and the fact that decision making is not left to an individual would (maybe) reduce the investment risk..

stock broking services in kenya

I'm finding most stock brokers both
-> swamped with the number of new investors joining the fray with the KenGen IPO
-> behind in terms of technology

A good number of new investors are people who would be willing to conduct transactions electronically via email/online etc... but from my personal experience... most of these brokers just don't cut it. Taking 2 weeks + to respond to an inquiry on online transactions makes me skeptical of using such a stock broker.. others have no set modalities worked out for email transactions.. just ad hoc..

With the amount of money that kenyans have living outside and willing to invest.. I would think that stock brokers agents what-have-you would be seriously pursuing electronic options... if not i'm not going to be happy :(. I don't want to have to 'bug' someone to sell/buy at this price at this time..

but then most of us I guess are categorized as small fish.... who usually .. as is tradition in most kenyan businesses are considered irrelevant... and usually ignored

bored

I'm so bored with hearing the same old stories of MP's giving themselves raises.. Cabinet Ministers giving themselves raises...

Now i wonder if we could actually appraise them on a yearly basis... maybe waiting for five years is too long...

North Eastern Province

the more i think about the north eastern province (and generally all people living north of Garissa) I wonder whether they feel part of Kenya.

Seriously marginalised, yet who says that they can't be an integral part of moving Kenya to being a developed country

If we are to seriously work on being a developed country by 20XX (XX not less than 20) every Kenyan has to be in the equation.. we need to have proper politicians.. politicians with positive policies... (if possible)

These ODMs, Narc-Kenyas blah blahs and others that, to me are centred on acquisition of power need to be replaced with parties that have policies that can take the country forward.

Arsenal vs Villareal

Two of the teams that no one really expected to show up in the Semis.. yet no one can dispute that they deserve to be there. Villareal, unbeaten in a group that included Man U (though I dare say if Man U were playing the kind of soccer they are playing now at that time, things would be different...), beating Inter Milan to get to the Semis is no mean feat. Riquelme is a attacking midfield genius...
Arsenal well.. unbeaten so far... clean sheets against Real and Juve... amazing considering the kind of injuries that they've had. There's only one Thierry Henry of course...

My take ..
Arsenal will win it if they can maintain their physical state and discipline, take their chances..Cesc vs Riquelme should be interesting... but the midfield is tight.. Arsenal are doing a 4-5-1 when defending and 4-3-3 when attacking... but at a frantic pace.. eboue will do his usual thing... but he needs to be able to retreat as well...

Forlan is the guy to watch in the box for Villareal... They'll probably deploy 4-4-2 but their strikers will be retreating alot to midfield.

On the whole it should be a thoroughly entertaining game now that both play 'the beautiful game'

AC Milan vs Barcelona

I am slightly in favour of Barcelona.. well because they play the more attractive soccer.
Of late though, AC Milan have been playing some serious soccer too...
In the battle of Play Making - who's gonna win: Kaka or Ronaldinho?

The Da Vinci Code

A book that is claims to be fiction and fact all within the space of 5 pages.

I think mainly fiction...

Sells because it's controversial, I've read much better written books.

I don't like the controversy so I'm NOT watching the movie.

For more details of why the book is more fiction than fact have a look at

http://cbn.com/special/DaVinciCode/

Paying Caesar

According to the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) weekly bulletin released last week, KRA managed to collect Sh201 billion against a target of Sh207 billion, representing a shortfall of 2.5 per cent.

I wonder whether if they actually implemented the tax registers... in proper , customer ways.. they'd probably collect much more...

You don't have to be confrontational

KenGen

Kengen IPO is finally over.. at least now things can get back to normal at the brokers.. (yeah right, considering that we have much more people who need to learn the ropes on the NSE ... ) things should be quite interesting on the stock market for the next few months

dot com kenyan cops

Maendeleo eh... cops on the net nowadays...
http://www.kenyapolice.go.ke/

It seems that (finally?) the gova has noticed that the Internet actually does exist..

Ati u can download P3 forms and Police Abstract forms from the site.... but i wonder... if u take them to a police station where the cops don't know nada about the website... what'll be the conversation like..?

In memory of those who perished in the Plane crash at Marsabit

Blessed are the peacemakers for they shall be called sons of God

The Knowledge Worker

I suspect this is a radical view, but anyway here goes:

I think the way we work, even in Kenya will be very different come 10 years. I personally hate an eight to five, with one hour break for lunch, especially knowing that my most unproductive hour is between 2-3 when my tummy is busy working its way through my lunch. The stomach during digestion has a lot of blood passing through it (according to the biology that I know) and the entire process takes up alot of energy.. hence that dozing that I experience after lunch.. (funny it doesn't happen after breakfast :) )

That aside... I also hate being tied to a post (also known as a job), it's like being zero grazed.. only that i can't grow fat ( ... my body metabolism doesn't allow that)..

I suspect I'm not alone in thinking like this.. The day I am in a position to change this scenario.. it will change... most definately no 8-1700 stuff, most of the time 8-9 pm is a good time for me to think and do some productive things.. For other people, 3 am works perfectly.. (don't ask me what they'd be doing at that time).

Back to the knowledge worker... A highly skilled individual who's his/her own employer on contract to several organisations at a time, and is always improving skill levels and acquiring new information and ways of doing things..
So that's what i think will be happened 5-10 years from now... or sooner even ( I hope).

rains

it is finally raining and we thank God for that.. Hopefully it will be sufficient... so that watu wanaweze kukula... it's very depressing seeing one part of the country suffering without food or water, yet another part of the country with plenty... and no way (or will?) to bring the two together...

KenGen IPO

I'm one of those people who was really siked about this offer then was advised about not going into it without knowing the risks.. so i delved into the prospectus available from http://www.kengen.co.ke using the little fundamental analysis i know (have a look at http://www.investopedia.com/university)


I'm no financial guru...i'm an IT and telecom junkie actually, but here is my analysis:


Bad:
Elections next year - we all know what happens when some people start talking about what they want (not) to do.
Drought - KenGen depends substantially on hydro-electricity (that is an understatement - though they are diversifying).
more minuses in the prospectus...

my good points from fundamental analysis:
KenGen has backward PE of approx. 14.875 based on the IPO share price and the adjusted EPS for the last financial year (ended June 2005) (11.9/0.8).

The industry has backward PE average of 16.55 as at 31st March 2005. GOOD

KenGen has Revenue growth: 23.5% for period ended 31st June 2004 - 31st June 2005.
GOOD

The bulk supply unit price was reduced from 2.36/kWh to 1.76/kWh, back dated to 2003/2004 and as a result 2003/2004 revenues declined.

Revenues grew approx 23.5% in the 2004/2005 financial year.

Revenues are expected to increase further when the bulk supply unit price reverts back to 2.36/kWh on 1st July 2006, representing approx 34% increase. This price increment has already been approved by cabinet and the KenGen Board of Directors.
GOOD

PEG -> 14.875/23.5 = 0.496 -> less than 1. PEG ratios less than one represent stocks warranting a second look.
GOOD

8.3% projected increase in power consumption for the next 9 years - highly unlikely that excess power will be generated meaning that all power produced will be consumed.
GOOD

In addition; using figures for the six month period ending Dec 31 2005 (0.65 EPS for this 6 month period)

PE of approx = 9.15 (11.9/1.3)

vs the current sector PE of 16.55

and PEG of 9.15/23.5 = 0.39
EVEN BETTER


The current financial years (2005/2006) figures look even more promising..

So I'd say BUY KenGen.

However, i'm no industry expert. All the financial analysis that I learn and am still learning is gleaned from surfing the net and reading books... so follow my 'advice' or thoughts at your peril :)

Again, we all saw the lines when the offer opened on 20th March; people lining up as if the shares were being allocated on a first come first served basis. A good number of retail (as in individual or those with less than 100000) investors are first timers who are probably expecting to cash out as soon as they feel they have made money, without regard to the fundamentals.. I wonder if you can actually follow fundamental / technical analysis / whatever analysis in the NSE.. it's sometimes very much like Tom Mboya at 5.45pm on Monday.

anyway... go buy.. how else would you really know that it is good or bad... and what better way to start investing..