Project Fame: and the winner is

Valerie!!!

Great vote! .. she's really a great person - vocally and all.... and has enormous potential to do music, coupled with her very friendly demeanor and positive attitude.

The rest
Alvan, Cedric and Linda have great potential to succeed as musicians in their own right... they have really shown it anyway.

I guess the show styled up towards the end.. as everyone involved got into their groove.

New Starehe Director

Finally Starehe gets a new Director - Prof Jesse Mugambi

I think he'll do a good job - he's always been a friend of Starehe; and he's been a parent too there.

Mozart's entire musical score now free on Internet

Came across this Reuters story here
The Mozart Institute's servers have experienced unprecedented traffic loads ever since this announcement was made.

Project Fame Final Week

Seems that my list of contestants at the final hurdle didn't change

Alvan
Cedric
Linda
Val

I had predicted (though didn't blog it here) that the winner would be one of Alvan, Linda or Val

I expect Linda to win it... she has the best balance of skills and 'that bit that u can't use words to describe that makes a star'

hmm 2M prezzo

GREED
It's all plain old GREED - and not just among most of our politicians but among a good number of us Kenyans.

How do we drive - helter skelter in a hurry to get somewhere (yet after dangerously overtaking the 'slouch' infront that seems to be in no hurry we end up just 2 seconds ahead of him).. just watch traffic on any road in Nairobi for like 2 hours - a really fascinating study of being in a hurry to go nowhere.

How do we do business - a good number of employers .. milk,squeeze every drop out of an employee while paying peanuts.. a good number of employees .. skiving job or not doing work properly and expecting to get a raise soon

How do we communicate and express our opinions...we can be very intolerant to one another, though we seem to be improving here somewhat. And we also love talking but hate doing mainly because we apparently can't plan too far ahead - or so it appears..

our political class are all about power and 'having our people eat' which is very unfortunate. That's an extremely short sighted plan of leadership

We have NO STATESMEN/WOMEN i can think of who think beyond themselves. and not $$$$$ and property.

The excuse that some people in gova were earning more than the president isn't good enough for me.

GIVE THEM A CUT.. NOT RAISE THE PRESIDENTS SALARY

Stanbic UGANDA IPO

I'm seriously considering taking part in the Stanbic UG IPO.

The info I've gleaned so far:

The issue price is Ushs 70 (Kshs 2.85)
Total of 1,023,773,394 shares (20% of the total) available to the public

Opening of the Offer: 10.00 on 24th November 2006
Closing of the Offer: 17.00 on 22nd December 2006
Announcement of results of offer and basis of allocations: 16th January 2007
Share certificates and any refund monies available for collection: 19th January 2007
Date of listing and commencement of trading on the USE: 25th January 2007

Price Earnings Ratio: 10.19
Dividend Yield at Offer Price: 7.81%

I think it's a good buy.

Apart from Dyer and Blair, I haven't found any other broker in kenya who can facilitate this. So I might as well open my fourth broker account.

Catch me if you can

This is my 100th post since i started blogging :)

I came across this Lamborghini that Italian police use when catching up with you if you overspeed :)

Starchville anyone?

I've come across some good looking T-Shirts done by students in Starehe (yes I was there once upon a time).

Water Engineers anyone?

I can't say I'm too shocked to hear that Kenya gets enough rainfall to supply up to 7 times its current population. After seeing the floods in the Coast and North Eastern Kenya over the past few weeks, there's no doubt that we in Kenya get quite a bit of water.

Question is what to do with it. Apart from Hydro Electricity and Rice Farming, there's no real use being put to the lots of water (apart from consuming it of course).

I wonder if there's any institution/organisation that is planning/is doing anything towards water harvesting. I say institution because the government seems to be preoccupied in other things - elections mostly.. How I wish somehow that the running of government and the policy making bit could work properly and independently.

Some university students and professors could actually take up this and turn it into a research project, get relevant info.. apparently the technology is out there that allows economic water harvesting. This could be a way of bridging the LARGE GAP between University and Society/Business/Improving Life in Kenya ?

FFBS Share Issue

From todays Daily Nation an Ad by Family Finance Building Society"
A Share offer by Private Placement open to Account Holders (as well as Board members and Staff I believe) of 15 000 000 shares @ KES 60.
Offer is open from 1st - 30th Nov 2006.
Minimum shares available - 500 shares @ KES 60 and Shares in multiples of 500 thereafter.
I suspect a good number of people will be opening FFBS Bank Accounts very soon. FFBS intend to become a fully fledged bank very soon and are waiting for approval from the CBK. I also believe they intend to list on the NSE soon.
I'm now thinking that perhaps I should join the list of people intending to open a FFBS bank account. Opening Requirements should be quite friendly :)

The Google Story, University in Kenya, Work in Kenya

Just finished reading The Google Story by David A Vise - www.thegooglestory.com

A few things that struck me:

The way that Industry and Academic/Research Institutions work together to solve problems and the great importance that academic and research institutions are in the Us and indeed all developed and NI Countries

which brings to mind the stand off between Lecturers and Universities, Government that has paralysed learning in Kenyan Universities.

I went to university in Kenya, and to be honest, the job I got after that was not so much due to what I learnt on campus but off campus. It's only that a good number of employers LOVE papers yet in the IT and Telecoms field I know a number of people who didn't bother with campus and really know their stuff.. as well as people who were virtually not in class most of campus life, didn't do well in the exams while working on other things like business or different courses.

There's a great GAP between Universities and Industry in kenya and most of africa. We really cannot expect solutions from the west to always work in this country and in the region.

Until Universities are relevant to most facets of society and can work with the industry to develop ideas, products that solve problems, they probably won't be able to churn out the kind of graduates that the continent needs to develop, as well as attract the funding, investments (e.g. a slice of that 12B profit from Safaricom).

Another thing from the book that I also noticed:

The importance of keeping employees happy, motivated, content, siked and all..

I have a friend working @ google and last time we talked:
"Google is Lovely"

I particularly love their 20% time set aside for their engineers to work on projects of their own. A good number of their products have come from this time. Projects with potential get funding and a team of engineers to work on. Innovation at work!

Oh and just imagine they have/had less employees than Telkom Kenya!!!!! (Telkom Kenya is to retrench 12000 people)

Number of employees: Worldwide, Google employed 7,942 full-time employees as of June 30, 2006 (http://www.google.com/corporate/facts.html)

Revenues for 2005 exceeded $6B :) and profits over $1.4B (http://investor.google.com/releases/2005Q4.html)

The conspiracy against Africa

I came across this article by Gerald Caplan:

Africa is a mess and it's not going to get better any time soon. That's the awful truth that's so hard to face — or to state publicly — for those of us who have had a long, intimate relationship with the continent.

Mine has lasted for almost 45 years. But from the very start, my experiences in Africa began conflicting with my hopes, indicating trouble afoot, foretelling that our utopian dreams were going to lead to crushing disappointments. Of course, we should have known what the entire 20th century taught: that all utopian dreams fail, not least those wrapped in progressive rhetoric.

The whole article is here

Question is whether Africa is really a mess...

Nairobi Marathon anyone? II

The Nairobi Marathon 10km seemed to have everyone in Nairobi and Beyond running in it. I didn't realize that the race had began until like 2 minutes afterwards as I was at the rear end of the crowd. Anyway... walked the first half KM since there were far too many people at the start.

I had had set myself a target of 45 minutes for the 10km race. I managed 47 minutes 22 seconds which was not too bad considering my troublesome shoelaces and the number of people on the track.

I think I will attempt 21 km after all. Maybe for the Lewa Marathon and for the next Nairobi Marathon.

Oh and my jogging resumes Wednesday.

CFA.. ideas anyone?

I'm considering working on improving my finance skills now that i've been in IT and telecoms for a while and have always been interested in finance, just that i'm also hooked to IT :). I'm calling it a shift in focus from a merely technical approach in business to a broader perspective.

I'm considering being a CFA one day. However, I am more interested in the contents, the material knowledge etc. The exam itself is something i can work on later, maybe after 2-3 years.

I know strathmore have a CFA course.

Any ideas from anyone on how to proceed?

Nairobi Marathon anyone?

I finally got round to registering for the marathon and collected my runners pack yesterday. I am doing the 10km race coz I asked myself a very simple question.. what will I be doing while running 21 or 42 km ... the mind needs to be occupied somewhat and I don't have my iPOD nano yet :(

I'm aiming for an ambitious target of 45 minutes.. The race organizers say that anyone who finishes under 1hr15 minutes will get a finishers medal.

Hopefully my jogging continues after the marathon.. :) that's the real challenge. Though I've more or less been consistent in jogging for quite a while now.

Now is to start working out - anyone with an idea of what gym to attend in Nairobi Kilimani, Ngummo, Town area that doesn't costs an arm, 2 fingers and a leg?

IAAF Athlete of the Year

Vote http://www.iaaf.org/community/polls/index.HTML

Preferably for the only Kenyan :)

powered by performancing firefox

Message in a bottle - Star Trek

http://timecapsule.yahoo.com/capsule.php

Send yourself a message and receive it in the future. Reminds me of Star Trek Voyager's - Message in a bottle

Vision 2030

I skimmed through yesterdays Daily Nation's story highlighting what will be contained in the soon-to-be-launched strategy document. It's to be officially launched by Kibaki on October 26th.

My fear is that this document will be used by the Narc(-K) as a campaign platform for the next General Elections. If it does.. I've a feeling it will go the way of the previous plans and strategies that lacked implementation. I just hope that they don't do this...

I'm one of those guys with no political allegiencies.. I only support good policies.. I believe that we will only move to the 'next level', get industrialized, achieve some(all?) of the goals highlighted in Vision 2030 if we make such strategies independent of people and politics. Systems and structures that work, that just need people to implement them .. and some 'fail safes' that prevent them from being abused and misused.

Talking of Vision 2030, I hope this document will be made available to everyone, and has some milestones that can be used when evaluating our performance with time. Someone sambaza that when possible..

soccer

my sports quote of the week....

'We like Arsenal because they play nice football'

more here

****

Meanwhile seems that Kenyan soccer woes are international news. I came across this story on soccernet.com

Apparently guys want Kenya banned from international competitions thanks to the power plays corruption etc.. that has bedevilled the kenyan soccer scene..

****

And I'm now looking forward to resuming my study of teams and how they can be compared to the running of a business even as I look forward to watching my first English Premier League game this season, after coming back home.. :)

Jisaidie

Barry Goldwater - "A government that is big enough to give you all you want is big enough to take it all away."

Paris!

I got an opportunity to visit (nearby) paris for a weekend... and was too jazzed by some street skaters:

NSE Goes electronic from Monday

From Monday trading on the floor will take place electronically.. This is good news and is long over due.. I hope this means that I can do purchases and sales, all on the same day.. Now I wish I'd be able to keep tabs on the prices over the course of the day (of course electronically)....

Kenyan IDs/Passports out in 2 weeks!

I actually thought that this was a dream.. (Even though i've seen passports being issued in a day :) ). Hopefully soon, IDs/Passports should be available to applicants within 2 weeks of application (10 working days).
All legal documents--identity cards, passports, births and deaths certificates--will now be accessed within a maximum of 14 days following a move by the Office of the President ( OP) to do away with all cumbersome procedures shrouded in bureaucratic networks of corruption. Residents of Mombasa, Kisumu, Eldoret and Nairobi applying for passports will be issued with one within a period of 14 days.
Apparantly the Central Records Systen at Sheria House is to get (new?) upgraded equipment to replace the obsolete ones purchased in the 1960s. Obsolete doesn't quite cover it.. More of Pre-Historic (Pre Flintstone :) ). Hope the equipment is new - an upgrade from 1960 could be scary :) - might just be a 386 computer...
This move should see corruption minimized at Sheria House and Immigration...
Good news I'd say

office and productivity

It seems that the current trends are such that in a few years if not months, most office and productivity tools and applications will be available on a web platform.

Just came across www.zoho.com, with an Office Suite that includes Presentation, Spreadsheet, Word processing as well as a myriad of other productivity tools.

The best bit .. it's all free (except the CRM which is free only up to 3 users).

I plan on test driving it over the next few days.

Google have added Google Applications to their free hosted solution. Still wondering whether to move my domain there.

Passing Through - My Focus and Priorities?

- I seem to be living in an age where the acquisition of wealth and money seems to be all that preoccupies the daily lives of people around me; where the desire to acquire and control immense amounts of money is the overwhelming driving force for seeking employment.

- Everyone wants.. more salary, more houses, more allowances, more more more more..

Oh and when you get a moderate pay rise this time, very soon after you want more...

I doubt it ever gets enough... as with all material things.

I would like to do lots of things, my primary objective being help other guys achieve their potential, and live happy lives.

It is indeed very difficult to re-orient myself to stop thinking about asking for payrises and instead thinking of ways and means to invest in and improve others. Call it a change of mindset, but as follower of Christ, I feel that's a life that one has to live. After all I'm just but a traveller in this world. As Anointed put it 'Life is a Dream, and Heaven's Reality'.

Living without thinking about getting more money - easier said than done. But with time I will. Of course this doesn't mean that I'll be broke. I might just be on the other side of that spectrum.


What really matters is, when I have all the money that maybe I'd want (an ideal state - like an thermal engine being 100% efficient:) ).. what do I do with it. Do you hoard it up, keeping it close to me, just making more and more and more and more...
or do I do the Acts 2:42-47 thing. After all it's not like the money will follow me to heaven, for that matter, it'll look rather dull there.

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opening a pandora's box

I'm all over the moon over www.pandora.com . After learning about it, I'm totally hooked. Though I wonder if streaming internet radio will be as smooth when i get back home in a short while..

East African Cables: Irrational Exuberance?

Is EAC hitting 571 KES a case of Irrational Exuberance or is this price reflective of the true value of the company. EAC have been doing well in the region. I thought when the share price hit 300 the other day, that it'd finally level out, but it seems that I was wrong. But this is the NSE and most decisions seem to me to be emotional rather than logical choices..

So, on that emotional thought line, I wonder which is the next stock to 'go the EAC way'.

My picks

ARM
KenGen (after a while)
Sameer (yes this is rather radical)

KCB Half Year Results

63% Looks Impressive. And with equity at 148 or thereabouts today,I think KCB will soon be rising. Problem is i'm far from my bank :(.

(this was also posted on stockskenya.com)

Equity IPO

The indicative price of KES 70 set for the KenGen IPO seems have been rather low. Closing at 166 on the first day of trading is really fascinating. However I expect the price to stabilize at a lower figure. But this shows that there's lots of money floating all over the NSE looking for some place.

muziki online

You can now listen to Mission Driven online! The new video (Save Me Saviour) which now on Kenyan TV coming soon.....

Pirates II

I really loved this movie. Absolutely hilarious. Definately one for the Big Screen. If you haven't watched it, please do. And start thinking about Pirates III

Guitars

My favourite toy (current). Electro Acoustic, Small Body. I'm now looking to sell my older Yamaha F-310. I seem to have an abundance of guitars (now 4!). 

ICT rankings

From todays nation:
Kenya is not ranked among the top 10 African countries in information communication and technology (ICT).

According to data gathered by the World Economic Forum and other economic organisations, the country ranks 12th behind its East African neighbours, Ugandan and Tanzania.
Tunisia heads the list followed by South Africa, Mauritius, Botswana and Ghana. Sixth is Egypt, followed closely by Morocco, Namibia, Uganda and Tanzania.

----------


Quite fascinating that Kenya is behind Uganda and Tanzania, which i think is due to past unnecessary regulations that ended up with Telkom K being a monopoly that didn't offer much service.

However I suspect those stats are going to be changing very soon in Kenya's favour. The country is more or less prepping up for a major ICT boom. Within the region, Kenya's ICT skills base is considered among the best (despite the ranking). I just hope that this ICT boom, will not be concentrated in the major urban centres but spread across the country. If a broader ICT base is created in the country, we could be topping that list.

away from The Alpha Quadrant (home)

Almost glad to be away from the cold of Nairobi and in the heat of Europe... I don't intend to be here though @ winter.. :) .. I may need to start learning dutch fast.. though everyone i've met (so far) seems to speak english as well and french.

Faith - Invisible to the Visible

Hebrews 11:1,3
Faith involves seeing/having visible out of invisible
God's work of creation: God spoke out His imagination into being

vs 6
Without Faith it is impossible to please God.
Faith in God, you must be *sure* that He Exists!

Faith transcends belief

Romans 14:23
Anything not of Faith is sin

Rahab is in the hall of faith because she acted in faith. Shielding total strangers; whom she'd only heard about.

Moses went out of his comfort zone, leaving royalty and doing what he needed to do.
He grew up with the oppressor (who has lots of clout) but left those that were oppressing, siding with the oppressed;

Sometimes in the life of Faith, a follower of Christ must be 'Downloadly mobile' and live counter culturally.

Most of the members of the Hall of Faith reflect this.

Faith without works is dead. All the members of the hall of faith had their faith evidenced by their action.

Happy Birthday Nakeel

Enjoy the age (while it lasts)...

Superman Returns

To be honest, I didn't know when to expect when I went to watch this at Prestige Plaza.

Found it to be excellent! Lots of action, romance ;) and humour.... Maybe even better than X3... but then ... they are kinda different movies..

Since Lex Luthor wasn't exactly captured... Perhaps they might spin off a new movie...

Now what I simply can't wait for is Pirates....

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Scangroup IPO II

from the prospectus:

Gross Proceeds of the Offer: KES 721,050,000

for 12 Months ending Dec 2005  (150 000 000 shares)
EPS 0.96
NAV 1.58
DPS 0.23
Offer Price to Book Value (NAV)  6.61 Times
Implied historic PE based on EPS  10.88 Times
----
for 12 Months ending Dec 2006/ (159 000 000 shares)

Forecast EPS 1.05
Forecast DPS 0.79

Implied future PE based on forecast EPS and Offer Price - 9.95 Times
Implied future Dividend Yield based on forecast DPS and Offer Price - 7.56%

----

Allocation of 69,000,000 shares on Offer:

A - Employees of Scangroup and Scangroup Subsideries - 3,450,000 Shares - 5%
B - Corporate Investors - 31,050,000 - 45%
C - Individual Members of Public - 34,5000,000 - 50%

-----

Dividend policy of approx 75 % of companies annual after tax profit

-----
Trading

29th August 2006

-----

I think i should get me some of these - if only for speculative purposes.
Company has been on an upward growth curve, net profits are projected to increase again.
Business is not capital intensive

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Scangroup IPO

I just got hold of the prospectus and i'm now looking through it..

Hopefully: HFCK and Sameer go out and Scangroup Comes in.

More on what i think about the IPO later (after i read).

Details of the IPO.

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FOSS: Software CD's delayed by Posta

I've been told that some 300 CD's of Ubuntu Linux have been detained by Posta. They were donated to LPA-Kenya, the Linux Professionals Association by the Shuttleworth Foundation. I don't understand these guys, considering that this software is totally free, (free source, free download, free postage even!). So even if duty is to be paid.... the maths is elementary.

I expect my personal consignment any time now and hope that they don't act funny. The last time I did this, the consignment was posted to me and I had no issues collecting it. A friend of mine however was asked to pay duty of about 2000+ and of course he told them to keep the CD's.
I already have a download of the CD's I'm expecting; it's just that the CD covers are soo coool...

Ubuntu Linux - version 6.06 is rated top ahead of Suse Linux and Fedora for the Desktop.

I believe the Free and Open Source Software is the way to go for Africa, and indeed the world as regards to IT based systems and applications.

sudoku

My latest craze... (like a good number of people)... is sudoku... Just an interesting way of harassing people.

Check out www.strictlysudoku.com.... get ranked!

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Italia, My 1st and 2nd XI of the world cup

Zidane must have simply forgotten where the ball was.. Perhaps it was in an alternate reality :)

Based on their performance throughout the tournament (except the USA game) Italy deserved to win the Cup. France did really well, especially in the final. Henry didn't score as i expected.. but the italian defence was superb.

My starting XI (2nd XI) of the World Cup:

1 - Ricardo (Buffon) - Portugal (Italy)

2 - Zambrotta ( Miguel) - Italy (Portugal)

3 - Grosso (Lahm) - Italy (Germany)

4 - Thuram (Mensa) - France (Ghana)

5 - Cannavaro (Toure) - Italy (Ivory Coast)

6 - Gattuso (Viera) - Italy (France)

7 - Ribery (Schweinsteiger) - France (Germany)

8 - Zidane (Pirlo) - France (Italy)

9 - Henry (Podolski) - France (Germany)

10 - Klose (Toni) - Germany (Italy)

11 - Ronaldo (Kaka)  - Portugal (Brazil)

Now enough blogging about soccer... I take a soccer blogging break till August !

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Italy vs France

This is about the hardest to call..

Based on each teams road to the final, on paper, Italy look like they could win it. They also have the advantage of having a days rest.

However, this is Zidane's last World Cup game, his last International Game, and what better way to end one's carrier than to be in the final of the world's greatest tournament, and better still to win it.

Italy probably are the fitter side. You just need to look at the Semi Final with Germany, and also their amazing defence.

France's last two games are reminiscent of Euro 2000: france beating portugal - deciding goal was a Zidane penalty in both cases, Trezeguet being a substitute (looks like he'll be coming on for the final as a substitute) - he scored the winning goal in Euro 2000... , with wiltord providing the assist (then i was anti-France especially after the Portugal elimination).. De ja vu...

Thierry Henry has this penchant of scoring goals against Italians (champions league)... I suspect he'll be on the score sheet this time round. Thuram, Viera and Trezeguet play for Juventus, and Henry, Zidane have played for Juventus before. All these players know each other inside out.

Both defences are extremely good (france though have the temperament of Barthez to watch out for)

this is a hard one to call... but i think i'll go for an Italy win in extra time.

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Italy vs France

This is about the hardest to call..

Based on each teams road to the final, on paper, Italy look like they could win it. They also have the advantage of having a days rest.

However, this is Zidane's last World Cup game, his last International Game, and what better way to end one's carrier than to be in the final of the world's greatest tournament, and better still to win it.

Italy probably are the fitter side. You just need to look at the Semi Final with Germany, and also their amazing defence.

France's last two games are reminiscent of Euro 2000: france beating portugal - deciding goal was a Zidane penalty in both cases, Trezeguet being a substitute (looks like he'll be coming on for the final as a substitute) - he scored the winning goal in Euro 2000... , with wiltord providing the assist (then i was anti-France especially after the Portugal elimination).. De ja vu...

Thierry Henry has this penchant of scoring goals against Italians (champions league)... I suspect he'll be on the score sheet this time round. Thuram, Viera and Trezeguet play for Juventus, and Henry, Zidane have played for Juventus before. All these players know each other inside out.

Both defences are extremely good (france though have the temperament of Barthez to watch out for)

this is a hard one to call... but i think i'll go for an Italy win in extra time.

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France vs Portugal II

this game was rather boring to be honest. If only I was sleepy like the previous Semi.

I suspect both teams were playing below their potential, until the last 15 or so minutes, due to perhaps fatigue and at the same time wanting to conserve energy.

But 100% correct predictions for the SEMIS for me.. :)

I suspect Italy will win this World Cup, but you never know. Zidane could just decide to make his last international game something to remember.

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France vs Portugal

yesterday:

I slept through most of the Germany vs Italy game....

I think i must have been kinda tired.. or was it just a boring game until extra time ? :) .. called it quits at 90 minutes only to hear that I missed the goals... anyway 100% win predictions correct so far...(out of 1 :) )

now todays game is kinda tricky to predict...

If Brazil couldn't break down that french defence, and portugal have had issues infront of goal.. I wonder if Portugal can actually hack this one...

Portugal has allegedly ronaldo & figo doubtful - well i think they are 100% fit..

Zidane will be key to france as always.. and henry simply has to stay onside for 20% of the time.. :) ... Abidal has really impressed at left back... as has gallas in the centre... in essence, the french are hitting form..

Portugal's main worry should be their apparent lack of potency infront of goal....
Hopefully this should end if they are to gain some form of vengeance against the french (remember zidane's extra time 'golden penalty' - i've never felt more 'gutted' after a soccer game)..

I suspect france will have the upper hand... and this could be a one goal game ( much as i want portugal to lift the trophy)

france win 1-0 in regulation time.

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Germany vs Italy

On paper, it is not my idea of an interesting match.

However, Germany with Klinsmann as Coach have rediscovered how to play exciting and attacking soccer. I doubt they'll play this way against the Italians, who are quite content to sit back and hit on the break. Considering that the only goal that they've let in so far in the final was an own goal, they'll be a tough nut to crack. Ukraine rattled their crossbar in the quarters, so there's a chance that they could concede.

I don't think that Germany's defence was really tested by Argentina, who were content to sit back and defend a one goal lead, and to my great disappointed opted not to play Messi.

If Italy score first, the game will be set up quite nicely.

I think this is a one goal game, and could go to extra time & penalties if no goals are scored.

I think either team could win this. Germany have gained a lot of confidence since conceding two goals against Costa Rica, but the last time these two met (March this year), Germany lost 4-1 with almost the same squad. Let's see if things have changed.

Prediction: Italy WIN 2-1 in full time

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World Cup Quarters: MY predictions

Germany vs Argentina

This is tricky to predict. Germany have been improving every game, but so have Argentina. Germany have not met any real world class competition since the tournament started. Argentina on the other hand have met Netherlands, Ivory Coast (it's their first time but i think they are world class), and their 6-0 demolition of (former) S & M was arguably the performance of the tournament so far.

Germany have a fanatical following being @ home, and their squad doesn't play the 'old boring soccer' that we've come to expect from Germany.

The key i think would be the defence & midfield. Argentina I think will be content to let Germany come at them and hit them on the break, while  seeking to slow down  the game and let Riquelme control things. This could be one of those 1-0 or Penalty games. Argentina on the other hand always look like they can score if they wish to. The German defence has not really been tested. It now faces a world class test.

Looking at the Benches of both sides. Argentina seem to have the upper hand here..

Prediction (2-1 to Argentina after extra time).

England vs Portugal

England have played some really boring soccer far. Flashes of brilliance from Joe Cole on occasion and abit of the Gerrard that we see in Liverpool. Lampard and Gerrard don't seem to play well together in the middle of the park. Owen is out, and we continue to wonder why Walcott is on the squad if he's not going to play. I think most (if not all) of the other squads have had all their strikers play some role so far in the tournament.

Portugal are missing two key players (possibly three if ronaldo is not fit). However they have  a very good midfield, Tiago can replace Costinha; the trick would be to replace Deco and Ronaldo (if he can't make it).

England I would think will be slight favourites in this one. But struggled to play against Ecuador. Only scored via a free kick that in my opinion wasn't well defended (though very well struck by Becks). Ecuador had their share of chances.. You get the feeling that Portugal will create  far more chances than them. Portugal's defence held up under the quite potent (but unlucky?) Dutch forwards.. Rooney (a.k.a Taz :) ) is always a handful but if unsupported he could struggle. I suspect that Sven will play the same formation as he did against Ecuador so as to deny Portugal the space to move the ball around.. Figo and Pauleta have instrumental roles.. but i think the guy to watch out for is Maniche....

Prediction (this could go either way but i think England gets in at 2-1 but only barely)

Italy vs Ukraine

Italy have managed to put aside the corruption scandals back home and concentrate on winning the World Cup. I thought they may struggle against the Czech, after their game with USA. However their defence in my opinion has been their greatest strength (how many times has that been said :) ).  Against Australia, their defence came to their rescue.. Despite the award winning dive, I still think Italy deserved it after surviving for quite a while with 10 men. Australia really have themselves to blame.

Ukraine have moved on from their 4-0 thrashing and are slowly showing the world that they too can win games :). Schevy maybe the recognizable star (apart from Rebrov), but as a team, they do play well.

Italy's strike force is quite potent.. I think we are yet to see the best of it. Toni has been particularly impressive.

Prediction (Italy 1-0)

Brazil vs France

Brazil have played not very impressive soccer, but they've managed to win. They really haven't met a team that could give them a run around really. Their defence looked particularly porous in the Ghana game, and with a team capable of finishing, they'd have been punished.

France have managed to gain form after a rather dull opening. Beating Spain was no mean feat (despite all the controvesy of Henry alleged acting, I still think the free kick was defendable, and they didn't score from open play unlike the french with Ribery's first senior goal). Their defence, even with the aging Thuram looked good.

This could be a tricky one to predict, but i'll go against what most guys would want...

Prediction (France 2-1)

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passports: A first

Now this is a first.

Check out todays papers (Friday) to see if your passport is ready for collection.

Funny thing is that the records include a friend of mine whose papers had vanished 6 years ago.

Does anyone know the URL where the immigration dept used to have people check on the status of their applications?

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Free Educational Material from MIT

I came across this - spread the word:

MIT’s OCW (http://ocw.mit.edu/) is looking for African education

institutions to offer mirror sites for its free, web-based teaching
materials. With the materials from 1400 MIT courses representing all 33
of MIT's academic disciplines, millions of educators and learners have
used the materials to improve their teaching and studies.

Unfortunately, the MIT OCW materials are largely underutilized in many
African regions where Internet connectivity is limited. To overcome this
limitation, we have installed a small number of mirror sites, or local
copies of MIT OCW content, at African educational institutions and our
evaluation data show that these mirror sites are having a significant
positive impact.

MIT OCW has received support to expand the number of mirror sites in the
region through the MIT OCW in a Box program. MIT OCW in a Box, which we
will distribute for free to African institutions, is an external hard
drive which contains: an entire copy of the entire MIT OCW Web site
(including videos), software tools, user documentation, and marketing
collateral. Its goal is to have 100 mirror sites installed at African
educational institutions by the end of 2006.

If you know of a university that could benefit from this program, please
contact farnaz@mit.edu.

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Matatu Fare Increase - Part II

My earlier calculations are apparently correct as regards to the new fare.. ( i think):

5.2% increase in fuel price is correct.

Assuming that

it costs 100 KES in fuel to travel from suburb A to City Centre (probably much cheaper) - prob about 15 km.

an average of 10 passengers travel in this vehicle (usually maaaaaany more).

the fare is 30 bob.

Means the cost incurred per customer / per trip is 10 bob

Profit less other expenses is 20 bob.

----

Increase fuel by 5.2% means it costs KES 105.2 in fuel for the same journey

cost incurred per customer / per trip is 10.52 bob

Increase in cost incurred 10.52 - 10.00 = 0.52 bob -> translates to 5.2%

So my earlier calculations are infact correct.

----

Bottom line:

Some ma3 owners are now increasing fares by up to 20 bob.

the MWA says fares should not go up by more than 15%. with a minimum of 5 bob and max of 10 bob.

I suggest they stop using the fuel increase as an excuse for increasing fares and look for another way of justifying it

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Matatu Fare Increase

Fuel has increase from about 77 KES to 81 KES (worst case a 4 bob). This represents a

~ 5.2% increase in fuel.

Means that Matatu/PSVs have 5.2% increase in expenses.

Cost of transport from Kawangware via City Hoppa at Peak time was 30 bob at peak times.

According to my maths.. to cushion themselves against the increase in fuel price. PSVs should increase fairs by 5.2%. This means that the new fare should be 31.56 bob.

So when the matatu guys say that they want to increase fare to 40bob let alone 35bob, i see them as being rather callous and greedy.

But then i don't own a Ma3 so perhaps i don't understand how the business is run.

But the thing is that there are people in Kenya who are not able to pay more for transport. an increase of 20bob for a days expenses is not comfortable or acceptable for a good number of kenyans

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Job/Consultancy Opportunity

Google is looking to hire a business consultant to help them evaluate investment opportunities for them within East Africa. The person must be based in Nairobi (they will work remotely with the rest of Google's Africa project team.)

Google has successfully set up similar consultancies in Egypt and Nigeria.

Google is looking for a dynamic person, who can credibly demonstrate their talents and achievements in the fields of business and technology. Their current work or ventures must also show how excited they are about new possibilities within the region.

If you are this person, please contact David using this email: dboublil [at] google.com.  In your email subject please write [GOOGLE OPPORTUNITY IN KENYA]

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Piracy and Open Source Software - Part II

Going back to Match 10 - Microsoft EA are the major heavyweight behind the efforts..

I still think the way forward for software, ICT etc in Africa is 'OPEN':

Open Access - Easy and affordable access to internet and local content

FOSS - Free and Open Source Software - Software that is Free (as in freedom, not a free packet of chips)-> leads to

'Open' Knowledge, people in Africa can learn from what other software developers are doing around the world by looking at source code of software without being charged for it, and without fear of being prosecuted. -> Capitalism is not everything..

Question of course is how to make money.. People are still willing to pay for SERVICES - e.g. maintenance of a website, web server, open source accounting system. The end user could of course spend time downloading and setting up FOSS based system, but why do that when there are (now) several companies in Kenya (and all over africa) specializing in Free and Open Source Software solutions.

Case in point - www.ubuntulinux.org - One of the fastest growing distributions in the world has its roots in South Africa.

I somehow think that within a few years, I will (hope to) see an East African Linux distribution..

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piracy and open source software

I'm sure a good number of us have seen the ads in the local dailies over the last couple of days concerning software compliance and anti-piracy.

Seems that Micro$oft (and the other smaller software vendors) have started to pull weight..

I think it's a good opportunity for Open Source CompaniesSoftware. Paying 40k KES for M$ Office when there is OpenOffice around is not good small and medium sized business and for the Kenyan economy.

armenian drama

from Kiss FM news:

ARMENIANS PICKED UP
The two Armenian brothers Artur Margaryan and Artur Sargasyan have been picked up by the police. The two were picked up at the JKIA at 1am this morning on arrival from Dubai, after they withdrew their guns when customs officials insisted on opening up a bag they were carrying. Police took them to their Runda house where the residence was searched. Gigiri OCPD Patrick Lumumba led the search and in the bag police found scores of Kenyan numbers plates, including GK’s and diplomatic plates, an army uniform and a gun. And more than 15 vehicles, one of them a mercedes number plate GK A666K, were found parked in their Runda compound.

These guys bana.... who'se their hook up and what are they doing with firearms on the plane...

the footage from citizen tv (funny that they are the only guys with the video footage) looked fishy...

Warning: Poorly thought out philosophy follows.

I got this from a friend:


One of the better fictions of Democracy is that you get to choose the candidate you want to represent you in "Bunge", "Kanjo", the Chiefs Baraza etc. This, depending on the context, may be presented as:

"The people have spoken"
"Wanjiku"
"Popular vote"

The truth is it is multiple choice.
You can choose cancer or stage three Diarhoea (To be fair this is an exagaration)

You get to choose the least worst tomatoes, as the market is about to close rather than the best fish from a sea of plenty.

The Reason

(Have you ever heard politicians saying "What Kenyans Want". How many asked you your opinion? How many collect statistics continuously? What follows are my opinions based on no rigour, research or reasoning ." The reason" above should be read as "My Guess" )

There is such thing as a good candidate.

A person who would use the least resources (money,mercedes) to get the most results (like the many who get by on under $1/= per day).

A person with great intelligence and political cunning (like the many who survive ghetto life, unemployed but somehow get to eat -- without resorting to crime)

A person with great maturity and wisdom.

The problem is she does not present herself for nominations by (INSERT YOUR CHAMA HERE) .


Think about it,
By standing to be elected I am esentially saying, "VOTE FOR ME I AM BETTER THAN BABA TOI" . How many good people do you know who behave like that?

Most capable people are busy building their families, careers, writing emails to their University mailing lists to complain about politicians and saving/investing for their "Retirement".

I propose we come out of the fiction of the Great Leader(tm). True it is possible that somewhere there is a Gandhi with a Vision of what Kenya can become, a Patrice Lumumba who is incorruptible, an Abraham Lincoln who will keep Kenya United no matter what.

But even though this Kenyan Exists, I am afraid, unless we find a way to coax him to stand for elections, we will be forced to make do with a George Bush with his NUKULAR weapons, Dan Quayle with his POTATOE 's, Museveni with his Kisanja (third term) and Boris Yeltsin with his partying .... and you know the most anoying part? They will all win their elections - with a landslide.


Challenge

As engineers you get to solve human problems, providing stable solutions utilising imperfect materials.

• Bridges from stone and sand
• Cars from baby Rust (iron as you all know grows up to become rust)
• Aeroplanes from scrap Sufurias (Aluminium, I know nowadays they use Stainless steel but bear with me)
• Electricity from River Tana
• Blackouts from Kengen, Kenya Power, Government, International lenders and Civil Society (You see, you need to form a committee to prepare an action plan so that you can mess up)
  
• Communications..... mainly by Guess work and Magic :)

Surely we can design a system, using the appropriate sensors, controls, feed back and actuating subsystems so that once deployed, it can be operated by even the most common housefl... I mean the stupidest politician* to produce acceptable results.


P.S.
* I know saying stupid politician is repeating myself. I apologise

world cup crazy

interesting to watch people during the world cup season.. I thought Kenyans were the real soccer fans considering how loyal they are to their non-kenyan teams. However, they are way behind on the scale of soccer fanatics - England (and the rest of the UK) must be top of the list currently.

I wonder which African Team will go furthest:

Ivory Coast - Group C with Serbia & Montenegro, Holland, Argentina
Angola - Group D with Portugal, Iran, Mexico
Ghana - Group E with USA, Czech Republic, Italy
Togo - Group G with South Korea, France, Switzerland
Tunisia - Group H with Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, Spain

I suspect that the question should be which team will be eliminated last.

Which African team is bound to perform best in Germany?
	Ivory Coast
	Angola
	Ghana
	Togo
	Tunisia
Free polls from Pollhost.com

Communications in Kenya

There is alot of buzz concerning Internet..

The Undersea Cable and all the drama happening there

The licensing of a 'Unified' license operator to be done within 7 or so months

A second LLO, popotewireless launching services..

The list is rather long, but I think the way to go for Africa communication wise is 3G..
Sooner or later, the cost of deployment of a 3G network will fall as more and more vendors attempt to get a piece of the african cake..

Mobile phone operators have achieved much more penetration than expected, and thus are capable of delivering mobile internet to a much larger population.

However the cost of acquiring a 3G capable handset would keep out a considerable amount of users. So it's still an expensive proposition to increase internet penetration in Africa.


But I am eagerly waiting for 3G services in Kenya, which I suspect we shall see within the next 1-2 years.

End of Uchumi?

I wonder if this is the end of Uchumi - this step probably should have taken place a while ago.

I now wonder if some rich consortium of guys will now and acquire the assets of Uchumi at a paltry sum and hope to sell it later for a fortune.

Passive vs Active Income

I am still learning how to increase my streams of passive income. After all those are the avenues of income that make one rich.

Apart from trading in stocks (passive income: dividends and capital gains), I am now looking at other means, but the initial investment for such ventures as real estate are not low.

Anyhow, I hope to have doubled if not tripled my annual passive income by the end of the year.

new entrant in LLO business

After Flashcom, comes Popote Wireless by EM Communications.

We hope this will result in reduced tarriffs..

I'm looking for fast and cheap internet access from the comfort of my room anywhere in kenya...

Fast and Cheap, not fast or cheap... I hope they are listening

KenGen IPO - the 'aftermath'

I decided to cash out of KenGen (not because I was broke :) ).

I also think that the price could come down further as institutional investors are unlikely to enter the market until the price goes below a certain level - maybe something like 20.

Based on my 'kienyeji analysis' http://josiahmugambi.blogspot.com/2006/04/kengen-ipo.html,
I had decided that I'd get out when the price hit 30. However, like everyone else I was surprised to see it hit 50+ on the first day of trading.

Anyway, the annual results could play a big part in determining the direction the stock will take in the short term.

Update: 'Lord' Tom Cholmondley

from kissfm.co.ke news:

MBUGUA SHOT BY CHOLMONDLEY
The man shot dead last night by Lord Delamere’s grandson Tom Cholmondley has been identified as 37-year-old Robert Njoya Mbugua, who lived in Greenstead estate in Nakuru. And police say they also suspect he and his four accomplices who got away were poachers, because a dead gazelle was found at the scene of the shooting.

visit http://www.kissfm.co.ke/news.php

==

So apparently they were poachers... or were they?

'Lord' Cholmondley

Rumour has it that he has now shot another guy... jana

ati he was a poacher...

the guy died on the way to hospital..

was probably a farmer

details later

Yaani.... Since when did he become Judge, jury and executioner ...

I hate ICT certficates and all these papers

u go for an interview with a stock pile of papers showing that you are more or less giving Dexter (the boy genius who lives by the laws of science, and hates his sister DeeDee :) ) competition.

So u think u match einstein's IQ, what with all the papers nicely tucked in your portfolio and ready to be flashed out to the interviewer at a moments notice.. papers ..

Well .. of course you're totally prepared for the interview and you get the job.. (your job title probably reads IT Manager or something inspiring and important)

Lakini wacha the real IT world hits you... (i.e. papers != knowledge) a simple virus can give u nightmares and make u miss that (executive) lunch.. or the mere mention of another operating system apart from Micro$oft windows.. can be (almost) heart stopping..

but then you think.. after all ... papers are everything ... or are they...?

Kengen IPO

Look at Bankelele's post for details of the allocation.

I really feel for the large individual & institutional investors who applied for large quantities of shares only to get a paltry 6,600 shares.. lost income for them since that money would have generated some income elsewhere for them.

I still think the advisors, architects etc of the IPO had no idea of the kind of response they'd get.

Now that there's alot of money being refunded.. i suspect that at least half of the 12B being refunded could find it's way back into the NSE... that means that everything shoots up, with possibly no regards for fundamentals of investing etc..
I'm kinda sceptical of such situations... before every bear market, there's usually a bull market... now the key thing is to know when the bull ends.

World Cup: Walcott?

I wonder what Sven is thinking. This kid should be on holiday from school during the world cup, unless the holiday location has been moved to Germany.

Kid is good though, rumour has it that he might be faster Owen, Bellamy or Henry in the premiership... He also has that confidence etc and can really play ball...

Lakini kijana hajaanzia Arsenal not even one game... so it's still a gamble... must be something to do with the rooney injury... ati he may be able to provide some of that inspiration


Anyway I like this world cup.... it's going to be one where the kids: cesc, messi among others could actually take centre stage..

Arsenal 4th Place & food poisoning

I wonder...
You know if this incident of food poisoning had occured huku kwetu... we'd know for sure that it was a rigging...

but then... maybe the spurs chef was nervous...

or something...

anyway arsenal seemed to have been destined to get 4th spot.. now lets see about 17th May

for the first time in several years.. there's a big chance that two english (mostly english by name considering Boro and Arsenal have more non brits in their sides than most) sides can lift the two main european cups in the same year..

Anglo-Spanish soccer finals

M.I-3

action from start to end.. thoroughly enjoyed it... and some of the stunts were truly awesome...

Now waiting for X3

kenyan life

Just reading that Kenya is still rated among the failed states makes me wonder what criteria they use..

granted.. we are not exactly far off..

but ngong road looks a mess

look at the flooding in coast and other parts of the country

look at MPs giving themselves more allowance (perhaps to 'insulate' themselves from what's happening)

Starvation all over the place

some scattered skirmishes

still thankful that we are more or less a peaceful people...

Don't try this car out in Kenya

VITAL STATISTICS

Model Bugatti Veyron 16.4
Engine 7993cc, 16 cylinders in a W
Power 1001bhp @ 6000rpm
Torque 922 lb ft @ 2200rpm
Transmission 7-speed DSG, manual and auto
Fuel 11.7mpg (combined)
CO2 574g/km
Acceleration 0-62mph: 2.5sec
Top speed 253mph
Price £810,345
Rating Five stars
Verdict Deserves 12 stars. Simply as good — and as fast — as it gets

http://driving.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,12529-1890873,00.html

investments, thieves (aka Mwizi Pekee), Maombi

It has long been the prevalent view that the art of successful
investment lies first in the choice of those industries that
are most likely to grow in the future and then in identifying the
most promising companies in these industries. - Benjamin Franklin

In Kenya, I think telecommunications and the industrial and allied sectors as well as commercial/financial services are growing.

******

Now what do these thieves want... yaani why does an MP in Nairobi need all that fuel allowance for... And as usual, there are no opposing voices... MP= Mwizi Pekee...

******

Our leaders need prayers.. At least as a Christian I should pray for them as I am commanded to. While praying, I should also hold them accountable, and if they don't change their ways. I WILL not vote for them..

And the cycle hopefully will not repeat itself .... or will it? :(

Investment reading

Came across Benjamin Graham's book - the Intelligent Investor (4th edition)... Very informative book: Warren Buffet was an understudy of his.
Now that most of the guys in the NSE speculate.... should be a enlightening read..

vote vote! Arsenal vs Barcelona

Arsenal vs Barcelona:

Dream final:

Two of the best attacking teams in the world going at each other... ideal soccer game to watch

fun!

I plan to enjoy this fully...

More analysis as May 17 approaches...

Music and Open Source Software/Free Software

Just spent a few hours at my 'kienyeji' studios (aka computer + guitar) with Audacity and KRecord on SuSE linux 10.0

Sound quality is excellent.. i'm still to try out the more professional and feature filled Ardour.. (for me feature filled most of the time means steep learning curve)

Recording guitar to comp results in a surprisingly low amount of white noise in Linux - Windows funny enough has much more white noise..

I tell u live recording artists are simply harsh...really good at what they do.. I'm very far from what i think is perfection...

But I'm having total fun doing this..

Relativity

I loved this quote:

When you are courting a nice girl an hour seems like a second. When you sit on a red-hot cinder a second seems like an hour. That's relativity.
Albert Einstein

L' Arsenal, Kaka and Barca

Ok... worst performance I've ever seen from Arsenal this season .. in the champions league.. Lehmann has just solidified his position as Germany No 1 Keeper.
Gilberto may have also guaranteed a Brazil Start..
But history never records such things.. they are in the Paris Final. Can't say they don't deserve to be there though. Nerves + Fatigue from playing way too many games of late:

Juve... manu, portsmouth, west brom, villareal, tottenham, villareal.. with 2-3 days in between for rest... and a very small squad. Now Senderos and Flamini injured.

Barca vs AC Milan: I don't think Barcelona's Defence is as astute as Villareal's. AC Milan will certainly go all out to get that away goal to even things out. And Pipo Inzaghi is back.. he has this knack of scoring important goals..from impossible situations.. Kaka is on form.. I think he's seriously underestimated...he'll definately have to play a great role if AC Milan are to be in Paris on May 17. He was their best player last week. Schevchenko will need to get back to his immaculate self.. and Gilardino shouldn't even appear on the bench.

AC Milan are more than capable of winning at the Nou Camp.. question is whether they can stop Barca Scoring...

Arsenal vs Barcelona final i think though. Better from an entertainment point of view anyway.

investment clubs

10 or so guys with KES 100000 or so each can really dictate Buy/Sell price..

Let alone the likes of akina the now well known Transcentury Group who have caused a sharp rise in Housing Finance shares with their intended acquisition of 24.9%..

I for one am for small investors to pool up their resources and buy buy buy.. getting portfolio management services wouldn't be hard i think, and the fact that decision making is not left to an individual would (maybe) reduce the investment risk..

stock broking services in kenya

I'm finding most stock brokers both
-> swamped with the number of new investors joining the fray with the KenGen IPO
-> behind in terms of technology

A good number of new investors are people who would be willing to conduct transactions electronically via email/online etc... but from my personal experience... most of these brokers just don't cut it. Taking 2 weeks + to respond to an inquiry on online transactions makes me skeptical of using such a stock broker.. others have no set modalities worked out for email transactions.. just ad hoc..

With the amount of money that kenyans have living outside and willing to invest.. I would think that stock brokers agents what-have-you would be seriously pursuing electronic options... if not i'm not going to be happy :(. I don't want to have to 'bug' someone to sell/buy at this price at this time..

but then most of us I guess are categorized as small fish.... who usually .. as is tradition in most kenyan businesses are considered irrelevant... and usually ignored

bored

I'm so bored with hearing the same old stories of MP's giving themselves raises.. Cabinet Ministers giving themselves raises...

Now i wonder if we could actually appraise them on a yearly basis... maybe waiting for five years is too long...

North Eastern Province

the more i think about the north eastern province (and generally all people living north of Garissa) I wonder whether they feel part of Kenya.

Seriously marginalised, yet who says that they can't be an integral part of moving Kenya to being a developed country

If we are to seriously work on being a developed country by 20XX (XX not less than 20) every Kenyan has to be in the equation.. we need to have proper politicians.. politicians with positive policies... (if possible)

These ODMs, Narc-Kenyas blah blahs and others that, to me are centred on acquisition of power need to be replaced with parties that have policies that can take the country forward.

Arsenal vs Villareal

Two of the teams that no one really expected to show up in the Semis.. yet no one can dispute that they deserve to be there. Villareal, unbeaten in a group that included Man U (though I dare say if Man U were playing the kind of soccer they are playing now at that time, things would be different...), beating Inter Milan to get to the Semis is no mean feat. Riquelme is a attacking midfield genius...
Arsenal well.. unbeaten so far... clean sheets against Real and Juve... amazing considering the kind of injuries that they've had. There's only one Thierry Henry of course...

My take ..
Arsenal will win it if they can maintain their physical state and discipline, take their chances..Cesc vs Riquelme should be interesting... but the midfield is tight.. Arsenal are doing a 4-5-1 when defending and 4-3-3 when attacking... but at a frantic pace.. eboue will do his usual thing... but he needs to be able to retreat as well...

Forlan is the guy to watch in the box for Villareal... They'll probably deploy 4-4-2 but their strikers will be retreating alot to midfield.

On the whole it should be a thoroughly entertaining game now that both play 'the beautiful game'

AC Milan vs Barcelona

I am slightly in favour of Barcelona.. well because they play the more attractive soccer.
Of late though, AC Milan have been playing some serious soccer too...
In the battle of Play Making - who's gonna win: Kaka or Ronaldinho?

The Da Vinci Code

A book that is claims to be fiction and fact all within the space of 5 pages.

I think mainly fiction...

Sells because it's controversial, I've read much better written books.

I don't like the controversy so I'm NOT watching the movie.

For more details of why the book is more fiction than fact have a look at

http://cbn.com/special/DaVinciCode/

Paying Caesar

According to the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) weekly bulletin released last week, KRA managed to collect Sh201 billion against a target of Sh207 billion, representing a shortfall of 2.5 per cent.

I wonder whether if they actually implemented the tax registers... in proper , customer ways.. they'd probably collect much more...

You don't have to be confrontational

KenGen

Kengen IPO is finally over.. at least now things can get back to normal at the brokers.. (yeah right, considering that we have much more people who need to learn the ropes on the NSE ... ) things should be quite interesting on the stock market for the next few months

dot com kenyan cops

Maendeleo eh... cops on the net nowadays...
http://www.kenyapolice.go.ke/

It seems that (finally?) the gova has noticed that the Internet actually does exist..

Ati u can download P3 forms and Police Abstract forms from the site.... but i wonder... if u take them to a police station where the cops don't know nada about the website... what'll be the conversation like..?

In memory of those who perished in the Plane crash at Marsabit

Blessed are the peacemakers for they shall be called sons of God

The Knowledge Worker

I suspect this is a radical view, but anyway here goes:

I think the way we work, even in Kenya will be very different come 10 years. I personally hate an eight to five, with one hour break for lunch, especially knowing that my most unproductive hour is between 2-3 when my tummy is busy working its way through my lunch. The stomach during digestion has a lot of blood passing through it (according to the biology that I know) and the entire process takes up alot of energy.. hence that dozing that I experience after lunch.. (funny it doesn't happen after breakfast :) )

That aside... I also hate being tied to a post (also known as a job), it's like being zero grazed.. only that i can't grow fat ( ... my body metabolism doesn't allow that)..

I suspect I'm not alone in thinking like this.. The day I am in a position to change this scenario.. it will change... most definately no 8-1700 stuff, most of the time 8-9 pm is a good time for me to think and do some productive things.. For other people, 3 am works perfectly.. (don't ask me what they'd be doing at that time).

Back to the knowledge worker... A highly skilled individual who's his/her own employer on contract to several organisations at a time, and is always improving skill levels and acquiring new information and ways of doing things..
So that's what i think will be happened 5-10 years from now... or sooner even ( I hope).

rains

it is finally raining and we thank God for that.. Hopefully it will be sufficient... so that watu wanaweze kukula... it's very depressing seeing one part of the country suffering without food or water, yet another part of the country with plenty... and no way (or will?) to bring the two together...

KenGen IPO

I'm one of those people who was really siked about this offer then was advised about not going into it without knowing the risks.. so i delved into the prospectus available from http://www.kengen.co.ke using the little fundamental analysis i know (have a look at http://www.investopedia.com/university)


I'm no financial guru...i'm an IT and telecom junkie actually, but here is my analysis:


Bad:
Elections next year - we all know what happens when some people start talking about what they want (not) to do.
Drought - KenGen depends substantially on hydro-electricity (that is an understatement - though they are diversifying).
more minuses in the prospectus...

my good points from fundamental analysis:
KenGen has backward PE of approx. 14.875 based on the IPO share price and the adjusted EPS for the last financial year (ended June 2005) (11.9/0.8).

The industry has backward PE average of 16.55 as at 31st March 2005. GOOD

KenGen has Revenue growth: 23.5% for period ended 31st June 2004 - 31st June 2005.
GOOD

The bulk supply unit price was reduced from 2.36/kWh to 1.76/kWh, back dated to 2003/2004 and as a result 2003/2004 revenues declined.

Revenues grew approx 23.5% in the 2004/2005 financial year.

Revenues are expected to increase further when the bulk supply unit price reverts back to 2.36/kWh on 1st July 2006, representing approx 34% increase. This price increment has already been approved by cabinet and the KenGen Board of Directors.
GOOD

PEG -> 14.875/23.5 = 0.496 -> less than 1. PEG ratios less than one represent stocks warranting a second look.
GOOD

8.3% projected increase in power consumption for the next 9 years - highly unlikely that excess power will be generated meaning that all power produced will be consumed.
GOOD

In addition; using figures for the six month period ending Dec 31 2005 (0.65 EPS for this 6 month period)

PE of approx = 9.15 (11.9/1.3)

vs the current sector PE of 16.55

and PEG of 9.15/23.5 = 0.39
EVEN BETTER


The current financial years (2005/2006) figures look even more promising..

So I'd say BUY KenGen.

However, i'm no industry expert. All the financial analysis that I learn and am still learning is gleaned from surfing the net and reading books... so follow my 'advice' or thoughts at your peril :)

Again, we all saw the lines when the offer opened on 20th March; people lining up as if the shares were being allocated on a first come first served basis. A good number of retail (as in individual or those with less than 100000) investors are first timers who are probably expecting to cash out as soon as they feel they have made money, without regard to the fundamentals.. I wonder if you can actually follow fundamental / technical analysis / whatever analysis in the NSE.. it's sometimes very much like Tom Mboya at 5.45pm on Monday.

anyway... go buy.. how else would you really know that it is good or bad... and what better way to start investing..

on billions

I'm still dreaming apparently.. I want this university on the top 20 of this list.

someone pinch me or show me the money

My (current) Billion Dollar Dream

thing is if I had a billion dollars today... Kenya would soon be on the way to have a state of the art, world renowned university (or universities)...

i'm still dreaming... but hopefully I shall awake from the dream...

media

ME-chuki must go...!

love

Now that it is 14th of Feb

To be LOVED, be LOVABLE (Ovid)

Love is like PI - natural, irrational and VERY important. (Lisa Hoffman)

Action: Finally...

Finally we see some action on the corruption that has bedevilled the land.
Let us pray and hope that the truth will be revealed.. not necessarily what someone else says is the truth ... after all everyone has a version of the truth that they believe that everyone should have as the truth.

More importantly let's us see what direction the President will take now that he finally .. somehow got the guts to fire... oops accept the resignation of two more ministers...

Goldenberg however is one of those scandals that I fear that nothing much will come out of. After all we don't have the kind of evidence that Githongo has on the Anglo (F)Leasing scandal, and whatever other scandals that are there.. that we still do not know about..

Perhaps we may yet become less corrupt than the majority of the world.

BBC NEWS | Africa | 'Taped evidence' in Kenya scandal

BBC NEWS | Africa | 'Taped evidence' in Kenya scandal: "In his first interview since going into exile in Britain, Kenya's former top anti-corruption official says he told his president about the corruption."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/4695354.stm

Mathematics, Programming and Politics

I think we now need a 'resignation' gauge....

w, x, z are all variables
y - total public offence


x out of y 'public offences' you must issue a public apology.

w out of y, you must issue a public apology and step down at the end of your term in office of whatever position you hold

If there is sufficient evidence that you commited or abetted a offence z out of y, you must issue a public apology and step down and aside from office... to 'pave way' for an inquest into your conduct pertaining to issue z.

however in most cases we find that z >> y. This can result in a divide by zero operation since the person responsible actually never bothers to resign.. nah.. (s)he doesn't even know that did z out of y (where z >> y 'public offences') . Hence as in any software program, an exception is thrown...

Kind of what is happening to Kenya currently..

Let's hope that some good programming (a/k/a) structures prevent divide by 0 operations.

Mathematics, Programming and Politics

I think we now need a 'resignation' gauge....

w, x, z are all variables
y - total public offence


x out of y 'public offences' you must issue a public apology.

w out of y, you must issue a public apology and step down at the end of your term in office of whatever position you hold

If there is sufficient evidence that you commited or abetted a offence z out of y, you must issue a public apology and step down and aside from office... to 'pave way' for an inquest into your conduct pertaining to issue z.

however in most cases we find that z >> y. This can result in a divide by zero operation since the person responsible actually never bothers to resign.. nah.. (s)he doesn't even know that did z out of y (where z >> y 'public offences') . Hence as in any software program, an exception is thrown...

Kind of what is happening to Kenya currently..

Let's hope that some good programming (a/k/a) structures prevent divide by 0 operations.

The Alpha Quadrant

Haven't done this in a while... but take a look at this:

http://www.thinkersroom.com/blog/2006/01/having-cake-and-eating-it-2/